New Mexico Sen. Martin Heinrich and a group of Democratic colleagues are calling on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to crack down on prediction markets letting people bet on wildfires and other natural disasters.
The letter notes that Polymarket accepted more than $1.2 million in bets on last year’s Palisades and Eaton fires in the Los Angeles area, which claimed 31 lives and destroyed more than 16,000 structures.
“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit,” the nine senators wrote in a letter to commission Chair Michael Selig. “There’s also the heightened risk — according to state and local fire officials — that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful. By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading.”
Numerous wildfires have broken out in New Mexico this year fueled by the preceding dry winter and, more recently, unusually high summer temperatures, including a new one north of Nambé this week. Prediction markets have also been an issue this year, with numerous states including New Mexico seeking to regulate them or suing them for breaking state laws while the Trump administration has argued for federal primacy on the issue.
A couple of weeks ago, Heinrich penned another letter pushing for more federal regulation of prediction markets.